This is why predictions of Bitcoin prices are always wrong. Even when they’re right.
The latest example is the crypto analyst who predicted that Bitcoin would drop to $1,000, just two days before the price hit $10,000. The moral of this story? Don’t listen to predictions and don’t make them either. The simple truth is that it’s impossible to predict the future.
I can hear the sceptics now. There are so many variables and factors at play that it’s impossible to say with any certainty what will happen next. As a journalist covering blockchain and cryptocurrency for a number of years now, I have heard every prediction under the sun—from “Bitcoin will be worth one million dollars” to “Bitcoin is dead and will never come back.”
For traders, it’s all about predicting where the market will go. But that’s easier said than done. The simple truth is that it’s impossible to predict the future.
I know, I know. That’s exactly what you expected me to say – and I bet you think I’m some kind of paid shill for the crypto industry. Let me assure you I am not.
The reality is that no one can predict which way prices will move in the short term – at best they are educated guesses based on a variety of possible outcomes.
But there is good news: while we can’t predict where cryptocurrency prices will go next, we can identify specific behaviors of different assets over time to help us determine when it might be a good time to buy or sell.
The simple truth is that it’s impossible to predict the future.
At least for crypto prices.
The only thing we can do is look at the past and then project those trends into the future — sometimes.
To be perfectly honest, I don’t think anyone really knows what’s going to happen over the next year, or even the next five years. And if you ask me to make a prediction, I might as well flip a coin.
But I just can’t resist making a prediction anyway.
It’s a tempting prospect – to believe that you can predict the future.
History has shown it’s impossible. But what if I told you otherwise? What if I told you that I have spent the last three years researching and creating a system which not only predicts the future, but does so with 100% accuracy? You’d buy into it, right?
Of course you would. The simple truth is that it’s impossible to predict the future. It’s a ridiculous notion to even attempt it, and anyone who claims they can do so is either a liar or delusional. But why is it so hard to predict the future?
To answer this, we have to look at what time actually is.
There’s a popular misconception in crypto that price should always go up. “Prices are only going to go up,” is the mantra of many crypto investors, as if cryptos were stocks or real estate.
The simple truth is that it’s impossible to predict the future. There is no magic formula to determine whether or not we are in a bubble and how long it might last. But there are some lessons we can take away from the past to help us make better informed decisions in the future.
If you want to buy cryptocurrencies, then do your research and decide which cryptocurrency you want to buy. HODLing crypto assets is high risk and you could lose everything if the market crashes so don’t invest more than you can afford to lose.
I’m not saying don’t invest in cryptocurrencies. While I don’t own any, I am a supporter of blockchain technology. But the simple truth is that it’s impossible to predict the future. So, if you do decide to invest and trade, make sure you understand the risks and rewards and remain humble in your approach.
My advice? Don’t believe anyone who tells you they know which way this thing will go. And never, ever put money into anything unless you truly understand it.