Bybit, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, in partnership with FXStreet has published a comprehensive report forecasting gold’s potential to reach US$4,000 per ounce by the end of 2025.
Key Highlights
- Gold has surged to an all-time high of US$3,500 per ounce, marking a 26% increase year-to-date and a 41% gain over the past 12 months.
- The rally underlines gold’s renewed strength as a reliable safe-haven asset, outperforming equities with the S&P 500 down 11% in the same period.
- Investors are fleeing volatility in traditional markets, driving demand for gold as a hedge against currency devaluation.
- Tariffs under U.S. President Donald Trump have reignited fears of a global tariff war, pushing exporters and importers to divest from vulnerable currencies and invest in gold reserves.
- Traditional safe-haven instruments like US Treasuries are seeing reduced demand from exporting nations, with gold emerging as the only stable alternative for risk-averse capital.
The report highlights the intersection of economic headwinds, inflationary pressure, political uncertainty, and a global search for reliable stores of value driving gold’s rise to historic highs.
Safe-Haven Demand
Gold’s outperformance reflects a broader macroeconomic trend: investors fleeing volatility in traditional markets.
- A weakening US dollar, persistent inflation, and negative equity returns have made gold increasingly attractive.
- As fiat currencies lose purchasing power, gold’s status as a hedge against currency devaluation has been reaffirmed across global markets.
Trade policies under U.S. President Donald Trump have reignited fears of a global tariff war, driving capital towards gold as a politically neutral store of value.
- Tariffs on key commodities and the possibility of levies on gold itself are pushing exporters and importers to divest from vulnerable currencies.
- Traditional safe-haven instruments like US Treasuries are seeing reduced demand from exporting nations affected by US tariffs.
Meanwhile, silver presents an overlooked but compelling opportunity for diversification, with historical data showing it moves in tandem with gold and remains undervalued compared to its 2011 all-time high.
Technical Momentum
From a technical perspective, bullish signals remain in place, with the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) remaining positive.
- The short-term (12-day) moving average stays above the longer-term (26-day) average, a classic sign of continued upward momentum.
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 60, indicating healthy momentum without entering overbought territory.
Given the supportive macroeconomic backdrop, persistent geopolitical risks, and favorable technical setup, analysts are forecasting the rally will continue short-term, with gold potentially reaching US$4,000 per ounce by year end if current momentum holds.
End-of-Year Target
The rally is expected to test its next resistance level at US$3,500, with a potential to climb to US$4,000 per ounce by year end if current momentum holds.
Diversification Potential
Silver presents an overlooked but compelling opportunity for diversification, with industrial demand contributing to its strength.
- Silver remains significantly undervalued compared to its 2011 all-time high of US$50 per ounce.
- With industrial demand also contributing to its strength, silver could benefit from both defensive capital flows and cyclical economic recovery.
Conclusion
Gold’s rise to historic highs is the result of intersecting forces: economic headwinds, inflationary pressure, political uncertainty, and a global search for reliable stores of value.
With traditional safe-havens underperforming and demand from markets like China rising, gold’s outlook remains strong.
As momentum builds, both gold and silver are reasserting themselves as essential components of a diversified portfolio in 2025.
The full detailed report is available here:
https://www.bybit.com/en/press-and-media/press-releases/2025/gold-reaches-us-4000-by-2025
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